An old Wall-Street saying goes something like this:
“Stocks frequently Climb a Wall of Worry!”
History shows the time to worry most is when NO ONE else is worrying. Said another way, when everyone is confident that everything is great, there is no one left to buy, and the unimaginable drop (at least at the moment) occurs without warning.
With a US election that has caused even the most calm a higher than normal heart beat and blood pressure, no matter the political persuasion, a worry is born.
A Brexit, or the exit of the British from the European Union which was a complete surprise to any who were following the almost certain stay polls, were surprised, another worry.
The historically worst start to the year (earlier this year) in terms of world capital market negative movement and calls for a world slowdown, another worry.
Prolonged lower than normal interest rates, many (present party included) think higher rates will be good longer term, after the initial adjustment in capital markets occur, but too low for too long, another worry.
Those wanting a stronger US Dollar, got what they wanted, but created another worry from a competitive standpoint.
All in all, plenty to worry about!
Funny thing is, capital markets have a way of happily ignoring the concerns and looking forward to what may occur over the next hill. It is true, markets can, and do, worry about items that should not be of a concern at times; a point for another market mood time.
Given the consumer has suddenly gained greater confidence than had in nine years, judging by the most recent consumer confidence related reports, Europe is not falling apart after the Brexit, and some type of possible stabilization from our Asian friends, capital markets are smartly treading water and patiently waiting further signals.
Enclosed is your 2016 Q3 Quarterly summary which reviews the most recent 90 days. Looking forward, October “Historically” can be a dicey month, BUT the final QUARTER tends to be the best of the year.
The most recent Newsletter is stuffed with information concerning the awesome “New Personal Total Vault” and the fantastic uses and features. If you are receiving this report via paper, you may like to know that this complete report, along with prior reports is also available in “Your Own Personal Total Vault”. If you are on the fence about changing to electronic reporting, with Newsletter in hand, now is the time to give it a try. If you do not like it, a paper delivery can resume at your request.
Have a Super Fall as we head towards the fun Holiday Season!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP