Category Archives: Political

Q 1 2020 Extended (12 Page) Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 1 2020 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

All New Pictures, Intro and Exit Music !

Q 1 2020 Newsletter

Click for PDF/Printable Version

 

Is Inheritance Taxable ?

This, our lead financial planning article for the newsletter-  With the subject of inheritance and the taxability of it occurring multiple times in the most recent quarter, the idea for this article spawned.

After completing the initial article, a continuation article idea also occurred which made the second part of the inheritance subject matter about being separate property.

We hope you enjoyed both articles and this was our lead financial planning articles.

All about the Car

In another fun personal financial planning two – part article, long desired, but fearful of writing …this article discusses the car, should you buy or lease and how to do so. Again, a second article occurred at a chance meeting in an airplane with a former law officer watching me finish the first article on the airplane!

In doing the research for these articles we ran across a really cool car research site, and mentioned some great buying resources as well.

Recession Thwarted – Capital Market Thoughts

To ignore new evidence in our minds is silly even if it goes against the grain of what you may have been saying!

In this article we review a CFA speaker’s slide about lowering rates during a recession and his conclusion. Bottom line, we’ve not been a big fan of lowering rates during economic growth, but an inverted yield curve which is highly predictive of a coming recession, along with lowering of rates, according to the speaker and the enclosed chart leads to a thwarting of the recession.

We hope we are wrong on this one and the speaker is correct!



Reach back to last year’s taxes in savings you can do now

In this article we discuss the remaining tax savings ideas that we can do this year, that will help last year’s taxes-

  • The SEP – Simplified Employee Pension
  • HSA – for the Health Savings Account
  • IRA – An oldie but a Goodie if it’s available to you
  • Roth – While not a tax saver you can do it now for last year’s taxes
  • Itemized itemize itemize – With today’s high standard deductions you may not be able to itemize but we remind that it’s a good idea to stay in shape as it’s likely these itemize deductions may come back in the future

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Spring !!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Q 4 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2019 Newsletter

Click for PDF/printable version of Newsletter

 

And here is your review!

Is it Time to Refinance?

With Mortgage rates moving lower, we discuss the major items to think of when refinancing your Mortgage.

Our most clever point is we like to have an 18 month payback for the costs when refinancing… this serves as a good barometer on when to refinance, irrespective of the size of your Mortgage.

 

30 Year US Avg Mortgage Rate

 

Tariff Talk

It’s been going on for a long time

Trade Wars AKA Tariff talks have been around for a long time. This is not our first rodeo… notice how trade has been more efficient over time!

 

us-trade-wars-history Cropped

End of Year Tax Reminders

While there are a lot of reach back tax items i.e. Things we can do next year for this years taxes… there are many that have a firm year end deadline-

  • RMD – Required Minimum Distributions
  • Company Related Retirement plans i.e. 401k
  • Charitable Donations
  • 529 and other education programs

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in ….. 2020 WOOOW !!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

FOMC Meeting and Interest Rate Update from Last Week

Last week, here in our preview of the meeting post, we discussed what the Federal Open Market Committee would likely review via the fortunate lunch with local Dallas Federal Reserve Chair Robert Kaplan and even had direct audio from the event.

We know it’s summer and we know many of you may be taking much needed R and R, but the FOMC meeting last week was surprisingly important.

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

Important Update Meeting Review

Jerome Powell, FOMC Chair released his decision to NOT lower rates ….

our comments….

From information gathered via the audio and economic data points available at the time, we felt strongly that the FOMC would not LOWER rates, that’s in bold because until just recently, many thought future increases may be in the cards.

However … this statement, in the FOMC press release was deemed to mean rates will be lower at the next meeting, which put wind int he sails of Capital Markets …

“The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Here is the joint estimate of FOMC members for  GDP (Gross Domestic Production-broadest estimate of US growth) for the remainder of the year … note an expectation of slightly slower growth for the remainder of the year and into 2020/21:

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

There is also a Dot Chart that shows where FOMC members expect rates to be over the same time period, but it was a mess and confusing…so we left it out!

Not playing Economist here, but there is a lot of room for lowering or NOT lowering as well… time will tell, but for now the general consensus for the next meeting which is at the end of July (30-31) is for a lowering of rates, at least by most Market Participants or those with a microphone  …. Call us skeptical of agreeing at this time….

Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!

There are some nice positives that come with these expectations… Mortgage Rates will likely continue to stay low and may even go lower!

Sorry if we got into the weeds, but we wanted to clarify the slightly blurry statement, reaction, and expectations!

Have a Great “FOMC Meeting Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Timely G-20/Tariff Meeting Chart – World GDP

It appears the Tariff talks continue to go on…

We are personally surprised as we thought much of this was posturing and there would be an agreement sooner rather than later …

This weekend at the G-20 meeting (here is a cool live China site on the matter) there is hope to finally settle the Tariff concerns…

Will see – if they do, market participants may likely sound a sigh of relief… and visa versa …

Our Friends at Visual Capitalist/How Much.com are out with a neat chart to keep the matters in perspective..

World GDP at a Glance

world-economy-gdp

Have a Great “World GDP Updated” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Fire Hydrant Volume of Company and CEO Meetings – Southwest Ideas Conference – 70 Publicly Traded Companies

Once a year, luckily we are invited to a local event that includes over 70 – yes it has grown to 70 publicly traded company visits and presentations…

Annual Southwest Ideas Conference

Through two close friends, one who organizes the event and the other who owns the company that organizes the event, we are invited, luckily, once again to the Southwest Ideas Conference here in Dallas –Southwest Ideas Investor Conference

This year’s event includes over 70 publicly traded companies of various size, location and industry –

We love this event as it gives us a chance to not only meet C – level executives of these companies up close and personal, but to also hear their outlooks, economic forecasts, insights, and general feelings of what is going on in their various industries….

We look forward to the rapid fire, multi-meeting all day event and look forward to bringing you any interesting updates that we may stumble upon…

Have a Great “Fire Hydrant C Level Visits” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Great Economic News – Why Some are Frowning?

On Friday, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their regularly monthly employment report – this is the first report in some time where ….

“Good News is Bad News?” 

Here is why some believe this!

Good Economic News  = Bad News?

Last Friday, November 2, 2018 the BLS released their regular monthly employment report that showed terrific economic numbers.

A fantastic, total 3.7% unemployment rate.

11-2-18 BLS Emp Report

In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….

The bad news for many is that they believe these good numbers will give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ammunition for continued rate increases.

Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).

The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!

11-2-18 90 daty v 10 year fredgraph

By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…

Now you know the rest of the story !

Have a Great “Good News is GOOD News” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Tariff Update – AKA Trade Wars in the Old Days – Sure Enough we have been here before?

Over the past 30 years, much of what we learned are what opinions to trust, which views to listen to, and more importantly, who to tune out.

Scott Grannis, former chief economist for a large financial company and currently retired with no intention of returning to work (NO BIASES!) is one of our favorite reads. Here is a very small portion, but a favorite on the Tariff wars from Scott and his Blog “Calafia Beach Pundit” – he lives in CA currently.

“In the past 12 months, the US has imported about $525 billion of Chinese goods, while at the same time exporting to China only $135 billion. China is selling almost four times more “stuff” to us than we are selling to them. So, the thinking goes, if both countries jack up tariff rates to prohibitive levels, the Chinese have much more to lose than we do, particularly since our economy is still half again as big as China’s. At some point the Chinese will wave the white flag, we’ll all agree to reduce or eliminate tariffs and intellectual property right theft, and sweetness and light will return to international trade relations.

We can’t rule out a successful end to today’s tariff wars, but neither can we be confident that they will inexorably lead to a repeat of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wars which in turn led to the Great Recession. I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties? (Zero tariffs are an economist’s dream, since by facilitating free trade they would be a boon to all countries.)”

Trade Wars History – This is not our First Time

Follow his comments up with an excellent updated chart on the subject matter from our friends at Visual Capitalist, and we will let you formulate your own opinion – an opinion that is likely more updated than before reading this post!

Have a “Tariff Trade War Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com