Last week, here in our preview of the meeting post, we discussed what the Federal Open Market Committee would likely review via the fortunate lunch with local Dallas Federal Reserve Chair Robert Kaplan and even had direct audio from the event.
We know it’s summer and we know many of you may be taking much needed R and R, but the FOMC meeting last week was surprisingly important.
Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!
Important Update Meeting Review
Jerome Powell, FOMC Chair released his decision to NOT lower rates ….
our comments….
From information gathered via the audio and economic data points available at the time, we felt strongly that the FOMC would not LOWER rates, that’s in bold because until just recently, many thought future increases may be in the cards.
However … this statement, in the FOMC press release was deemed to mean rates will be lower at the next meeting, which put wind int he sails of Capital Markets …
“The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
Here is the joint estimate of FOMC members for GDP (Gross Domestic Production-broadest estimate of US growth) for the remainder of the year … note an expectation of slightly slower growth for the remainder of the year and into 2020/21:
There is also a Dot Chart that shows where FOMC members expect rates to be over the same time period, but it was a mess and confusing…so we left it out!
Not playing Economist here, but there is a lot of room for lowering or NOT lowering as well… time will tell, but for now the general consensus for the next meeting which is at the end of July (30-31) is for a lowering of rates, at least by most Market Participants or those with a microphone …. Call us skeptical of agreeing at this time….
Bottom Line: No rate lowering but rhetoric that was taken by market participants as a lowering is in the cards sooner rather than later!
There are some nice positives that come with these expectations… Mortgage Rates will likely continue to stay low and may even go lower!
Sorry if we got into the weeds, but we wanted to clarify the slightly blurry statement, reaction, and expectations!
Have a Great “FOMC Meeting Update” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
32.862841
-96.808100
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Q 1 2020 Extended (12 Page) Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale
Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 1 2020 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.
Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page
Let’s get going!
All New Pictures, Intro and Exit Music !
Q 1 2020 Newsletter
Click for PDF/Printable Version
Is Inheritance Taxable ?
This, our lead financial planning article for the newsletter-  With the subject of inheritance and the taxability of it occurring multiple times in the most recent quarter, the idea for this article spawned.
After completing the initial article, a continuation article idea also occurred which made the second part of the inheritance subject matter about being separate property.
We hope you enjoyed both articles and this was our lead financial planning articles.
All about the Car
In another fun personal financial planning two – part article, long desired, but fearful of writing …this article discusses the car, should you buy or lease and how to do so. Again, a second article occurred at a chance meeting in an airplane with a former law officer watching me finish the first article on the airplane!
In doing the research for these articles we ran across a really cool car research site, and mentioned some great buying resources as well.
Recession Thwarted – Capital Market Thoughts
To ignore new evidence in our minds is silly even if it goes against the grain of what you may have been saying!
In this article we review a CFA speaker’s slide about lowering rates during a recession and his conclusion. Bottom line, we’ve not been a big fan of lowering rates during economic growth, but an inverted yield curve which is highly predictive of a coming recession, along with lowering of rates, according to the speaker and the enclosed chart leads to a thwarting of the recession.
We hope we are wrong on this one and the speaker is correct!

Reach back to last year’s taxes in savings you can do now
In this article we discuss the remaining tax savings ideas that we can do this year, that will help last year’s taxes-
We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the Spring !!!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
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Posted in Audio, FOMC, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Newsletters, Podcast, Political, Tax Related, Video
Tagged car, D Magazine, Inheritance, Inheritance Planning, Interest Rates, Kent Smetters, Reach Back Tax, Sirius Satellite, tax