Category Archives: Political

Technology Upgrade Update – Rates Rise – Friday

On Monday of next week we hopefully successfully do a major upgrade to our internal email systems. This will mean each of our company emails will be down, but not all at the same time. As the switch occurs, while promised nothing will fall through the cracks by our IT team, if you happen to send an email and you have not heard from us, please re-send it just to be safe.

Rates

Ok, it’s a Friday so we will be brief, Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) notched another rate increase under her belt without disrupting the capital markets. Once thought impossible, so far, slow and steady (tortoise- not the hare) is winning the interest rate normalization race.

This is a good chart of the ever increasing rates… finally !

Fed Funds Rate 6-15-17 fredgraph

Ahhhh…. Today is a Friday… enjoy your day and your weekend !

Talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Earnings, the key to Capital Market Growth … Let’s get an update?

The ultimate driver of Capital Markets are Earnings. Yes, we can argue about interest rates, currencies, world political and economic cycles, but all of these events are only important in how they change earnings or the growth there of “Earnings”.

Let’s take a look at early statistics from 2017!

Earnings Via our Friends at Factset

This from Factset, one of our favorite data aggregators in their regular weekly report.

  • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.6%. If 13.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q3 2011 (16.7%).

Looking closely at the following chart, which is TRAILING earnings, forward looking capital market expectations can be seen. The trailing earnings are actually falling over the last few years, but the forward expectations as noted from the first bullet above are expected to climb more rapidly than the past six years.

5-12-17 Factset EPS change and Price

 

So just where are these revenues that are creating accelerating growth coming from?

5-12-17 Factset Geographic Rev chart

P/E or the Price to Earnings is the most blunt way to measure the valuation of capital markets. A high P/E might mean markets are overvalued and need to grow into their valuations, or a reversion to the mean reset to a lower level may be in the cards.

5-12-17 Factset 12 PE ratio V long term

From Factset’s estimates above, the current market P/E is about 22 with a normal of 16-17, undoubtedly higher than normal but certainly no guarantee of an imminent reversion down to lower levels.

If the growth estimates mentioned in the very first bullet come through in 2017, much of this froth may be taken out of the capital markets.

Either way, we have your back via our good friend diversification!

There you have it, a nice ‘Earnings Update” … We will be watching closely!

Have a great “Earnings Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Productive or Populated? Two Great Charts

Being a big fan of charts and graphs, these two just jumped out at us”

This from our friends at Visual Capitalist, a terrific source of data.

20170330_024750000_iOS

This from HowMUCH.net, ANOTHER terrific source of information.

20170330_015915000_iOS

Cool comparison of Productivity !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

New Intro and Music -February 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

February …. The Shortest month of the year!

A busy time of the year too….

We made the best of it, we covered a lot of ground!

Hope you like the new intro and music for our video!

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

February 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Simplifying the Probate Process

Thanks to all of the fantastic comments and views  .. here is the list in brevity :20170125_200814794_ios

  • Not usually complicated- some states can be
  • Probate needed for real estate, non beneficiary titled accounts or ownership
  • Creates a Letter of Testamentary
  • Multiple or Joint Executors can complicate
  • Not all Estates have to be probated
  • Inventory of assets may be needed
  • Effectively closes the Estate

One of the most crucial items for Probate to go smoothly, is organization up front.

Age 50 Catch Up Provisions

If you turn 50 by years end, you have deeper savings available to you.

  • $6k extra for 401k and the likefiftieth-birthday
  • $1k extra for IRA/ROTH and similar types

Here is the IRS reminder statement!

Speaking of reminders, we continuously find that employers need to be reminded the year one turns 50 that you can actually add extra funds into that retirement savings program — give them a call !

Will the Euro Survive?

Marine Le Pen Win Means No

According to our experts from the Out West Meeting (the one Donald The Brain Crashed in 32 minutes) if Marine Le Pen wins the Euro will not survive. This was a cross over item, as several different experts said the same thing unknowingly.le_pen_marine-9586

April 23, 2017 is the final vote.

So why are we watching this? If Le Pen wins, this may be the final nail in the Euro coffin. Assuming all believe this, capital market uncertainty would likely bubble.

  • Brexit – Capital Market shakes 3 days
  • Unexpected US president – Capital Market shakes 3 hours
  • Euro Breakup – Capital Market shake Unknown –

Our experts acknowledged this time line and lack of concern, but cautioned on becoming over confident.

Ok, we will be watching !

See you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

Three great reasons to be happy today ! A long term global perspective…..

Three reasons to be happy …..No, it’s not because it is Friday…..although many times that may seem like a good reason to be extra Happy!

This is better!

With much of the banter daily being negative, we find this refreshing and think you will too!

Recall our attention is directed towards the financial world….. work with us here!

Three Fantastic Charts to keep the Perspective

We ran across these from our friends at Our World in Data and just had to share…

While there is still Poverty, over the longer term, terrific progress!


We can argue the chicken or the egg from above, literacy and poverty;  This chart shows great progress as well….certainly not done yet, but GREAT progress!

 

So less are living in poverty and more are literate …. but guess what? More are living in freedom as well!

Have a Happy Friday and a Super Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

Forecasts from Canadian Economist Derek Burleton … Trump Policy, US Economy, Rates, US Dollar and Oil Prices

Earlier this month at our “Out West” conference where “The Brain” crashed the party in  32 minutes, we had the opportunity to listen to famed Canadian economist, Derek Burleton.

We greatly enjoy hearing from stately folks outside the borders of the US for several reasons …

  • What exactly do people in their geographic area think of the situation?
  • Receiving differing media reports may lead to a totally different and valuable views.
  • Countries with TOTALLY different governments may have clarity that we may take for granted.

Derek Burleton Forecasts20170202_211041438_ios

Trump policies will likely not make major changes to the economy. Burleton likens economies to air craft carriers that are very hard to turn and only slightly changed by policy.

Given the above fact, in the short term, Burleton thinks the capital markets could be due for disappointment, as the markets may be pricing in too much optimism currently.

Rates will rise twice in 2017 and again in 2018. Interestingly the fed has said three times this year and recently are saying even more lately….

US Dollar and Oil are both at near term (12 month) highs.

We like the forecasts as a vote of calmness and reasonable expectations. Thanks Derek… we will be watching as this unfolds.

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Repatriation/Tax Holiday of Foreign funds? Yes or No

In our continued crossover theme from our Out West Conference, this item was discovered while reviewing the tons of notes taken and prepping for more detailed articles in the coming Newsletter. Nice find!

As a reminder, a crossover occurs, in our minds, when several experts unknowingly say, predict, or comment on the same event or action. We like the chances of such an event when multiple parties agree, and in this case, we even chime in too.

Repatriation of Foreign money held hostage by US companies

Call it a tax holiday, repatriation or whatever term you may like, our experts agreed totally that allowing US companies to bring money back into the US would be terrific idea. Currently, companies have been strangled by a double tax hit if they bring “Already Taxed once” foreign earnings back into the US.20170202_165920762_ios

David Cameron, the famed former Prime Minister/President of Britain “It’s senseless to hold hostage US company money overseas!” He suggested a low tax of 6-8% to allow funds to be brought back into the US and said it would be a nice tail wind.

Derek Burleton, expert Canadian economist “US Corporate tax rates are a big mess and need to be fixed. Allowing funds back into the US from multinational firms is a great idea and would help the economy!”

We could not agree more.

  1. There will be uses of funds that not all agree are good.
  2. The spirit of free trade and borders is being hampered in our opinion by double taxing foreign earnings re-entry.
  3. The World is a MUCH smaller place.
  4. Free flow of capital will eventually find it’s best use, artificially hampering this can cause inefficiencies.

Have a great “Tax Repatriation” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com