Category Archives: Political

No Increase YET, Shrinking Balance Sheet ? Huh …. Friday still from afar…

On their regularly scheduled meeting Wednesday (7-26-17), Janet Yellen chief of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and committee announced unsurprisingly, no rate increase. The committee also announced they would be shrinking the balance sheet soon.

Shrinking the balance sheet? huh…

Alan Greenspan (Former, former FOMC chair Yellen-Ben Bernanke- Alan Greenspan) made it clear if you understood what he said, he did not do his job … that language continues today!

Here is a preview graph of the FOMC “Balance Sheet”…

Next week we will explain what shrinking the balance sheet means… in English..hah

Ahhh…but that is next week … today is a Friday and we are still working remotely from afar … (Technology is treating us well!)

Enjoy your Friday and your weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Rates Rise and No One Blinked, Report Cover Letter

The once dreaded and feared interest rate raise seems to have run its course from a fear standpoint. Just a few quarters ago when Ben Bernanke was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chairperson, the whisper of a long-awaited rate hike lead to market calamity and many to believe rates would be permanently artificially low.

Near the end of this most recent quarter, current FOMC chair Janet Yellen raised rates to the 1% level, a level not seen in almost a decade and without much capital market trepidation. Longer term the short-term interest rate controlled by the FOMC may not go all the way back to the higher levels once seen historically, however a 2-3% rate would still be stimulating from our perch. It is possible the gradual move higher will extend this current economic expansion.

Speaking of rates, in our Q3 2017 Quarterly Newsletter we do a complete deep dive on interest rates, among many other items, that may have changed Residential Housing Prices movement for the foreseeable future. While so many argue of reasons for Housing volatility, the answers are less vivid than many may think.

Continued optimism from company executives seems to have given them confidence to expand their businesses dropping the unemployment rate to levels many thought not possible via hiring’s of workers. It is possible an employed consumer is a happy consumer who is also a consumer who spends more. With consumer spending making up over two thirds of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) this bodes well for domestic and world growth, as long as it continues.

Given low but rising interest rates (finally) a happy higher price valued Home Owner (again full details in the Newsletter), a happily employed consumer, it is no wonder many assets and most capital assets, especially the US markets are priced to perfection (high compared to historical values). The fantastic news is that our overseas counterpart capital markets are not priced as high and it looks like investors are finally beginning to warm to their markets. Our good friend diversification keeps us exposed to these markets as the possibly reawakening occurs. Look for more on this on our street-cents.com blog.

Summer doldrums?

Maybe, but we always keep our guards up as risk can happen fast, even if the less tenured folks are at the wheel of the capital markets.

Have a Great Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Q 2 2017 Cover Letter

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Technology Upgrade Update – Rates Rise – Friday

On Monday of next week we hopefully successfully do a major upgrade to our internal email systems. This will mean each of our company emails will be down, but not all at the same time. As the switch occurs, while promised nothing will fall through the cracks by our IT team, if you happen to send an email and you have not heard from us, please re-send it just to be safe.

Rates

Ok, it’s a Friday so we will be brief, Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) notched another rate increase under her belt without disrupting the capital markets. Once thought impossible, so far, slow and steady (tortoise- not the hare) is winning the interest rate normalization race.

This is a good chart of the ever increasing rates… finally !

Fed Funds Rate 6-15-17 fredgraph

Ahhhh…. Today is a Friday… enjoy your day and your weekend !

Talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Earnings, the key to Capital Market Growth … Let’s get an update?

The ultimate driver of Capital Markets are Earnings. Yes, we can argue about interest rates, currencies, world political and economic cycles, but all of these events are only important in how they change earnings or the growth there of “Earnings”.

Let’s take a look at early statistics from 2017!

Earnings Via our Friends at Factset

This from Factset, one of our favorite data aggregators in their regular weekly report.

  • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.6%. If 13.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q3 2011 (16.7%).

Looking closely at the following chart, which is TRAILING earnings, forward looking capital market expectations can be seen. The trailing earnings are actually falling over the last few years, but the forward expectations as noted from the first bullet above are expected to climb more rapidly than the past six years.

5-12-17 Factset EPS change and Price

 

So just where are these revenues that are creating accelerating growth coming from?

5-12-17 Factset Geographic Rev chart

P/E or the Price to Earnings is the most blunt way to measure the valuation of capital markets. A high P/E might mean markets are overvalued and need to grow into their valuations, or a reversion to the mean reset to a lower level may be in the cards.

5-12-17 Factset 12 PE ratio V long term

From Factset’s estimates above, the current market P/E is about 22 with a normal of 16-17, undoubtedly higher than normal but certainly no guarantee of an imminent reversion down to lower levels.

If the growth estimates mentioned in the very first bullet come through in 2017, much of this froth may be taken out of the capital markets.

Either way, we have your back via our good friend diversification!

There you have it, a nice ‘Earnings Update” … We will be watching closely!

Have a great “Earnings Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Productive or Populated? Two Great Charts

Being a big fan of charts and graphs, these two just jumped out at us”

This from our friends at Visual Capitalist, a terrific source of data.

20170330_024750000_iOS

This from HowMUCH.net, ANOTHER terrific source of information.

20170330_015915000_iOS

Cool comparison of Productivity !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

New Intro and Music -February 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

February …. The Shortest month of the year!

A busy time of the year too….

We made the best of it, we covered a lot of ground!

Hope you like the new intro and music for our video!

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

February 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Simplifying the Probate Process

Thanks to all of the fantastic comments and views  .. here is the list in brevity :20170125_200814794_ios

  • Not usually complicated- some states can be
  • Probate needed for real estate, non beneficiary titled accounts or ownership
  • Creates a Letter of Testamentary
  • Multiple or Joint Executors can complicate
  • Not all Estates have to be probated
  • Inventory of assets may be needed
  • Effectively closes the Estate

One of the most crucial items for Probate to go smoothly, is organization up front.

Age 50 Catch Up Provisions

If you turn 50 by years end, you have deeper savings available to you.

  • $6k extra for 401k and the likefiftieth-birthday
  • $1k extra for IRA/ROTH and similar types

Here is the IRS reminder statement!

Speaking of reminders, we continuously find that employers need to be reminded the year one turns 50 that you can actually add extra funds into that retirement savings program — give them a call !

Will the Euro Survive?

Marine Le Pen Win Means No

According to our experts from the Out West Meeting (the one Donald The Brain Crashed in 32 minutes) if Marine Le Pen wins the Euro will not survive. This was a cross over item, as several different experts said the same thing unknowingly.le_pen_marine-9586

April 23, 2017 is the final vote.

So why are we watching this? If Le Pen wins, this may be the final nail in the Euro coffin. Assuming all believe this, capital market uncertainty would likely bubble.

  • Brexit – Capital Market shakes 3 days
  • Unexpected US president – Capital Market shakes 3 hours
  • Euro Breakup – Capital Market shake Unknown –

Our experts acknowledged this time line and lack of concern, but cautioned on becoming over confident.

Ok, we will be watching !

See you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

Three great reasons to be happy today ! A long term global perspective…..

Three reasons to be happy …..No, it’s not because it is Friday…..although many times that may seem like a good reason to be extra Happy!

This is better!

With much of the banter daily being negative, we find this refreshing and think you will too!

Recall our attention is directed towards the financial world….. work with us here!

Three Fantastic Charts to keep the Perspective

We ran across these from our friends at Our World in Data and just had to share…

While there is still Poverty, over the longer term, terrific progress!


We can argue the chicken or the egg from above, literacy and poverty;  This chart shows great progress as well….certainly not done yet, but GREAT progress!

 

So less are living in poverty and more are literate …. but guess what? More are living in freedom as well!

Have a Happy Friday and a Super Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com