Banking is all about Confidence … Experienced Reminders and Hat Tip Advanced Analysis Part 2 the M2 Money Supply!

We will leave the drama headlines for other sources, as there are of course many that will come from the recent West Coast Bank Failure….

Being our second major Rodeo on this one, the Great Financial Crisis (aka GFC) of 07-09 the first, we are reminded of several things – This is NOT the 07-09 Crisis – Don’t go there

Here are some observations:

  • Risk happens slowly, then all at once (money moves faster than 15 years ago too!)
  • Fears may jump from one to the next during problem times- quickly
  • Events rarely repeat (lightening strike same place twice) but they sure do rhyme
  • It takes a long time for events to play out, not withstanding our first point (this is likely not over)
  • Banking is all about confidence … oddly most recently a storm in the south caused a loss of confidence in gas inventory in our neck of the woods… within hours all gas stations were out of gas! Sound Familiar?

Advanced Analysis Replay – Pat ourselves on the Back Here

Part 2 of our Advanced Analysis – Recall and Reminder – The M2 Discussion

M2 Turns Negative for the First Time and that’s a Long Time!

Posted on January 18, 2023 by John Kvale CFA, CFP | Leave a comment

There are tons of measuring sticks out there…. almost all of which we look at and follow, at least at one time or another…..

What grabs our attention is when the measuring sticks do unique things….or have never happened before!

Why are we watching this?

This draw down of money in the system may put pressure on certain risky players i.e. Companies that use Junk or High Yield Debt!

Closing Thoughts:

We mostly stay away from these “HOT” or maybe even Negative topics, but wanted to let you know we watch this, have spoken in advance of some of the risks, and are using past experience to help guide and monitor the situation!

Have a Great “Experience Matters” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.



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