Dear Investor:
Putting Q1 of the year (2023) behind us, compared to last year at this time, seemed straight forward. recall last year at this time, we had just began interest rate hikes.
As the calendar turned we began searching for a similar series to last years’ “Back to Basics”, due to the popularity, comments, and sharing that occurred with this multiple series.
By luck or accident, we landed upon the antithesis like series called “Advanced Analysis” in part due to the current economic cycle and the nearing of the end.
Advanced Analysis Pilot
Our Pilot/Part 1 of the series was extremely timely and focused around M2 a broad economic measurement of money sloshing around the financial system. This is discussed in greater detail in our Q2 Newsletter at a very high level. Whether lucky, or preeminent, our observation, was to watch out for more high risk debt players in the capital markets and especially junk bonds. This fact seems to be occurring much faster than originally though.
Tax Season – Hints and Reminders
As we turn to Q2 of the year in what seems like expeditious fashion, it is tax season. We once again call your attention to our Q2 Newsletter as there are some great last minute tips not only looking forward to this year, but also things available that may help last year’s taxes.
Interest Rate Anniversary – Most Likely Nearing an End
As mentioned in the intro, within the last two weeks we have just passed the start of the interest rate cycle, which was the fastest on a percentage basis we have ever seen The US economy and the global economy for that matter, operate much more like an aircraft carrier then a ski boat in their change of direction. The financial sector seems to be in the early innings with other parts of the economy much later in the economic game cycle. We will get through the slowdown eventually with all parts of the economy and move forward.
Have a great spring. Talk to you in the summer!
Sincerely,
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Enclosure (2023 Report)