Robert Kaplan Speaks Candidly, Echoes Our Main Thoughts for the Newsletter – NICE – There is Still Stimulus out there and Higher for Longer!

The Forward-Guidance podcast review, recommended from one of my coveted study buddy groups, a week or so ago!

With downtime over the holiday weekend and the newsletter not being in print just yet… Robert Kaplan’s comments from a podcast came in very much in line with some of the articles in our coming Q 3 2023 newsletter, as such we had to bring you up to speed on this podcast.  NICE!

Recall Robert Kaplan was a Dallas Federal Reserve President, before getting caught up in a political issue and he along with several other members ended up resigning. 

What stands out about this podcast is the candor that Kaplan gives, which is what we are always looking for. Is it because this is a less than hugely popular podcast ? … although it will make my regular check for subject matter from now on, Or it is due to the resignation which would make Kaplan never available for public service again? …so he has nothing to lose period. Does not matter the reason his candor again is what grabbed attention. 

The just over one-hour podcast which can be found here (Forward Guidance), had three important points to bring to your attention: 

There’s still stimulus flowing in through the system- Again one of our articles in the coming Q 3 2023 newsletter speaks about the ERC or employee retention credit, Kaplan mentioned specifically talking to many mayors of many cities across the United States which have an abundance amount of stimulus capital still on their balance sheet that must be spent before 2025. hmmmmm 

Higher interest rates for longer should be the baseline assumption according to Kaplan– Again this is the subject matter of another of our newsletter articles. Kaplan speaks to the podcaster candidly and says capital markets even though we were just beginning a credit cycle (Tightening of lending standards, less loans, higher interest rates and lower margins, increased defaults all the intent of the federal reserve’s higher rates to slow the economy)- while capital markets and participants are pricing a lower interest rate at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, Kaplan cautions participants to take Jerome Powell at his word. The only thing that would make him change his posture is some large event created by the further progress of the aforementioned credit cycle. 

It is a good old boys club– In an aha moment that we always thought existed, Kaplan slips and says his dissenting vote in September of 20 was a frowned upon event by Jerome Powell! However he quickly corrected himself and said I will let Powell speak for himself, but the rabbit was out of the hat, Kaplan realizing this went on to say that the general spirit of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is everybody agrees and falls in line with a distinct hierarchy of ranking. We could all remember and learn that there is a very much pecking order where the king is the chair, and the pawns are supposed to follow. 

Apologies for the length of this post, as mentioned with some time off and the dictation in hand, along with a total complement to our pending newsletter, wanted to bring this to your attention.

Have a great “Inside the Federal Reserve via Robert Kaplan” day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.



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