During his annual speaking event at Jackson Hole Wyoming, Jerome Powell, chief of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced the worst kept secret that rate decreases will start in September….
Here in our Yield curve analysis …… a week or so before the announcement….again not a secret!
Looks like the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell is set to start lowering rates on or around September of 2024!
Note lightly circled in red early August moves…this off of weaker Economic numbers… slightly longer term interest rates have already moved …
Below is a most recent yield curve…Far left is short end and far right the 30 year…
The Red Arrow is where the FOMC will adjust rates…. likely FINALLY un-inverting the yield curve for good, ie not the most recent 10 minute un-inversion….
Looking forward to later in the last quarter of the year… from our research partner Hedgeye Risk Management, they see – light blue (current) dark blue (forecast) CPI – Consumer Price Index re-accelerating due to sticky inputs and base effects… yellow is consensus!
If correct, the end of the year from a continued rate decrease perspective would be interesting ….
Have a Great “Looking Forward” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
AI Content Authenticity: All of the following text content has been completed by myself and has not been edited or created by AI. Occasionally we do use AI for images and will note when appropriate.
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
