Break In – On Friday the Yield Curve Inverted for about three hours – we have spoken at length on this subject, but want a little more time to see market participants reactions as well as Fed officials before making a current update.
As a reminder the Inversion of the Yield Curve has a strong recessionary signal some time in the future, frequently years in advance –
Friday’s inversion triggered a series of sell programs that clearly did not do their homework on the possible eventual timing of a recession.
With a Newsletter already in print – coincidentally we had much talk about recessions, and even a definition. The two hour inversion did mess our Newsletter up a bit as until Friday it had not inverted – we will update you more with clarity soon!
Back to our regularly scheduled program/post…
Why we don’t like to Move Money on Fridays
As a weekend nears, specifically Friday … many’s favorite day of the week, we tend to dislike the movement of funds.
The reason is two fold:
- If something goes wrong, the weekend can be/seems long to determine a correction
- Skeleton crews frequently man the ship on Friday’s- especially during the summer
Our absolute least favorite movement of funds is sending to all new instructions on a Friday – we rarely do this – and never do before a long/holiday weekend!
There are of course times that money just HAS to move on a Friday, such as the closing of a home (in an abundance of caution, we frequently send funds on Thursday) or a last minute quick fill up of cash.
Regularly scheduled deposits are fine as the calendar determines this and being on such a regimented event, trouble is less likely.
Deposits or draws as we like to call them are a different story. When we are pulling funds from another account, we see the flow of funds from our end and can easily Shepard/see problems.
In a safe over sorry posture, look for us to recommend Thursday or our favorite day, Monday, for the movement of unscheduled funds.
Have a Great “No Friday Money Movement” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP