Category Archives: Advanced Analysis

Advanced Analysis … Part 4 of More to come … Standard Deviation – Dust that Statistics Off !

OK so while maybe not a complete advanced topic it may be unfamiliar to many, so let’s code this Advanced Analysis as a refresher that we’re going to use in the future to build on.

Standard deviation

Below you will see a nice graph of a bell shaped curve that attempts to depict basically a broad estimate within a certainty of an outcome.

Said in a much simpler way and by example… on June 1st in Dallas TX … there’s a 95% chance that the temperature will be between 90 and 110, and on average over longer periods of time, this deviation will be somewhat normal… this makes the graph even on both sides.

The only reason that you want to know this is so that when the result we are measuring greatly varies from this temperature one can infer how unusual it is.

By M. W. Toews – Own work, based (in concept) on figure by Jeremy Kemp, on 2005-02-09, CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1903871

Two standard deviations is the very most common and represents a probability of 95%!

There you have it .. likely the simplest advanced analysis topic that we’ve had and a refresher for many, but again this brings us up to date for some items that we can build on soon with more to come in advanced analysis topics

Have a Great “Standard Deviation Refresher/Advanced Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

CoCo Bonds – Contingent Convertible aka AT 1 Bonds – Advanced Analysis Part 3 of ? BREAK IN: Do NOT add to a Bank Run – Easier than you think to Accidentally Do!

DO NOT DOG ON BANKS

BREAK IN:

At a welcome home family dinner last night, the fact that causing a Bank Run is illegal was brought up . Huh?

Yes it is basically illegal to cause harm to a Bank…. aka create a Bank Run… In today’s Social Media frenzy, this could come in the form of a like, sharing a post or forwarding something to a person of influence .. YIKES…

This is getting LOOOONG… so here is the cliff note version: Coco bonds are European instruments (Not USA) with weird exercise rights that can evaporate an investors money if a Bank gets in trouble. These clauses have been invoked already on a European bank, causing renewed knowledge of these instruments and their weird rights.

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Post

One of the absolute favorite things about the Financial world and our industry is the vast amount of diverse products, structures, programs and for that matter super cult like popularity of instruments that come and go throughout the space of time…. all of which make for constant learning- just continuous!.

Our advanced analysis series is meant to cover very complicated items for our high level collective knowledge…. This is a HEAVY one, just as a heads up!

Advanced Analysis Part 3 – Meet the Coco aka AT-1 Bond – A European thing

Coco’s sizzle because they can essentially be converted at the company’s whim, leaving little control to the actual bond holder!

Bonds are debt instruments unlike Equity (stock ownership) in “MOST” cases that have a front row ownership to the company. Said another way, if something happens to the Company a Bond holder is in most cases the very first person to get paid. Bond holders loan the company money only to hopefully get paid interest on that money and eventually the return of that money in the future.

Convertible Bonds as they are most commonly known, give the bond holder the right to convert or exchange those bonds for another ownership strand of the company. Coco bonds are converted if the Banks hit certain levels, which are stress levels, unlike normal convertibles which are fun/happy levels.

When Coco bonds are converted, investors may actually be taking a step back in ownership (Debt to Equity) have no control in when this happens, and may have large losses immediately for doing so.

Coco bonds do pay more interest, but as some (European banks) are finding out recently, this is not near enough to cover the uncontrolled convert at a less than happy time in the investments life.

Chopped this down a bit, as it is a Monday and wanted to get the Break In to everyone… Just trying to explain, in a very small world, that events across the pond, weird as they may be, have ripple effect here in the USA!

Have a Great “Coco Bond Understanding” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents