Have you taken a look at how the calendar falls this year ?
If not, take a minute to look, it requires extra planning as it will be a FAST month… As planners we are attempting to determine what days will be the holiday honored?
Looks like New Years will be honored on Monday, January 2, 2017!
All else is up for grabs….
Today is a Friday and after a heavy week of posts, we wanted you to glide into your weekend…. Enjoy and watch out, it will be the end of the year before we know it!
We hope you all had a fun and safe Halloween. As promised, Halloween being a family favorite, I have attached a picture at the bottom of this post to humor you into the weekend.
The Brain In the House AGAIN
Today “The Brain” Donald Capone is in the house once again for a very quick turnaround CFA Institute event. We will both be out of the office for most of the day due to this event.
Next Week Happenings
Next week brings our Video summary review for October…Wow… this year continues to go quickly, some interesting news on why we joined NAPFA (National Association of Personal Financial Advisors), the official Holiday Party Invite, among a few other items (26.2 on deck.)
Ahhh…but that is next week, and today is a Friday heading into a weekend. Enjoy yours, thanks for reading our writings, and do not forget to spend time with those special in your life.
Even with much of the country on vacation as well as the world, August 2013 was a month with important events occurring.
August 2013 Video by John Kvale
Earning estimates and confessions slow
As we have noted throughout the year analyst estimate have been too high and continue to drop.
The Great GDP Revision
Ed Dolan at Seeking Alpha wrote a nice article about the changing of the GDP calculation. We were somewhat surprised at the easy acceptance of the new data, as we wrote before the adjustments.
Pretty much all you need to know can be inferred by the chart above…yes, the new numbers are better…hmmmmm
Interest Rates continue to march higher
Higher Rates are a headwind to stocks and a downer for the value of bond holdings. August, while a quiet month often, saw rates as low as 2.55% only to see a high of 2.92%…approaching the 3% first digit handle.
Bad month end Economic numbers, one time or trend beginning? New HOmes Sales and Durable Goods
New home sales comments from Econoday released 8-23-13:
“In a report that strongly shakes up the housing outlook, new home sales plunged to a 394,000 annual rate in July vs the Econoday consensus for 487,000 and the Econoday low estimate of 450,000. And there’s more bad news. For a second month in a row, the report includes major downward revisions to the two prior months totaling 62,000 in this report. The 394,000 rate for July is the lowest since October with low double-digit monthly declines hitting three of four regions and a mid-single digit monthly decline hitting the Northeast.”
The following Monday, 8-26-13, durable good orders came in weaker than expected as well. As the chart shows below, this is a volatile metric.
Goodbye May 2013, we wanted to hit a few of the high points! The year is not slowing down so far, but with the official entrance into the summer doldrums we expect slower motion for a while.
Here is our May 2013 Capital Market and Economic summary video, by John Kvale
The 10 Year Treasury
Interest Rates from high above on a longer term do not look to bad…actually it looks very good. As a general rule, lower rates are helpful to valuations, interest costs along with margins and long-term confidence.
10 Year Yield 1960 to Current
Yikes ! When we look at a shorter term chart, the story may be changing as rates have begun to rise somewhat faster than many may have expected. Rising rates act as a mild headwind unless they rise too fast. We will keep our eyes peeled on this matter.
10 Year Yield YTD 2013
Ben Bernanke’s Punch Bowl AKA QE Taper…not Tipper
If you are one that likes to debate…step right up. The debate is on, and it is anyone’s guess when the Fed will slow the gigantic $85 billion monthly purchases of fixed securities. For the record, the Fed has been mashing on the gas long enough now that they actually purchase more than $85 billion monthly, as prior purchased securities are maturing and have to be re-invested.
This debate is a major contributor to our prior subject, interest rates. IF and WHEN the Fed really let’s off the gas pedal, the fear is what rates will actually do….or more over, how fast and how far they will rise. Buckle up and let’s all hold on, if the Fed draws a line in the sand we may begin to see who has been swimming with no swim trunks…..not us of course!
Continued enthusiasm….Party like it’s 1999
The most surprising continued element happening this year is the huge rise in market valuations given the slow growth that is being recorded. Do not get us wrong…things are getting better in MANY aspects of the economy, but are they REALLY getting THAT MUCH better? We do not think so, given the data we have at this time. Current market growth was 3% over the last quarter…awesome that is great…but a 10% plus move in the US capital markets is a bit extreme…in our opinion.
Here is your April Review Video…Good News, this one is even shorter and to the point (thanks for the suggestions..haha) Next up, how to figure out how to get a more flattering picture on the initial screen.
Hope you enjoy the April 2013 J.K. Financial, Inc. John Kvale Capital Market Video Review
Our first point from April is Interest rates…..yikes…but a better finish.
We watch interest rates as a sign for the possibility of growth and or a slow down. GENERALLY, but not always a lower rate tends to proceed slowdowns. Rates on the 10 year fell to well below 1.70% signaling a slow down or an increase in fear. Early in May rates have found their footing and are moving back to less of a slowdown signaling level.
Taxes and Expenses from the Congressional Budge Office
Given April 15th is personal tax day and we have mentioned that it was a hard tax season this year as many/most seemed to be paying more, we dug this chart from the Congressional Budget Office forecast for 2013 and sure enough, they are expecting a much larger increase as well. Good forecasting on their part and unfortunately lighter pocket books on our part. We sure wish those lines would cross..meaning a balanced budget.
Boston Marathon a tragic event
In a very crazy moment of a positive event gone south, the explosions of the Boston Marathon mark a spot in our April review. We wish all those that were injured a speedy recovery and we are happy for a quick capture.
That’s it for April. Hello May, hopefully you will not pass us so quickly.
Posted onMarch 1, 2013byJohn Kvale CFA, CFP|Comments Off on Our First Video (Review and Preview), February…Where did you go? The Brain hits the slopes
With a year that is flying by we wanted to take a moment to look back at a couple of key events of the latest month, February 2013……good bye:
Sequestration, the $85 billion overhype…While a large amount to you and me, $85 billion is just not enough in an economy as large as the US to move the needle, although it has been talked about more than we would have thought
Dude I want my Dell back….Michael Dell goes after his company and attempts to take it private at a price below what current shareholders desire, fighters take your corners..the only rule is there are no rules…
No QE to Infinity?..Surprise…. Some fed governors begin talking about removing the punch bowl early, maybe even this year and market participants as well as bonds take notice, as of late in the month chief dove, Chairman Uncle Ben Bernanke assures markets the punch bowl will remain; In our opinion the dialogue has begun and will continue
On a personal note, as we head into the weekend, Donald The Brain will be out a few days next week as he and his wife take to the slopes with friends for some pre-spring break fun. The computers here at the office will be happy with a much-needed and deserved rest from his regular workouts.
In a new for us, for those such as myself that are more visual and audible, I have enclosed a short video with thoughts to go along with this month end review.
Posted onOctober 5, 2012byJohn Kvale CFA, CFP|Comments Off on A Night of reflection, the coming week kicks off the earnings treadmill, RMD’s, and a long weekend for some..
Last night I had the honor to receive the FPA Honor’s award from the Financial Planning Association of Dallas Fort Worth. There is no way to express in words the collective passion, integrity, intelligence and dedication that attendees and fellow recipients shared at the meeting. It was a terrific night of reflection of the last 24 years in the industry and another reason I am thankful to be in this industry servicing clients and friends, such as those who may be reading this.
In addition to earnings season officially kicking off next week with the October 9th announcement of our steady friend Alcoa, Quarterly performance reports and our slightly cynical Newsletter will hit the mailboxes and electronic vaults as well.
We will begin processing Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) for those that have such requirements next week as well, staying well ahead of the end of the year requirement.
The post office, bankers, and my kids have Monday off in celebration of Columbus day. As such we would expect a slower than normal day today in the afternoon as well as Monday.
Today marks the end of the quarter and the start of the run to the Holiday season, historically the best for capital markets. While we are hopeful for continued progress in capital markets we are skeptical to say the least.
This quarter’s Newsletter is coming along. Kathy our editor always amazes in turning a somewhat rough yard into a masterpiece.With a very long article on Big Ben and a critical assessment of the current economic environment we think you will like our analysis of possible outcomes (nonpolitical.)
Donald is in town today for an out of the office event and makes his usual whirlwind tour, 7:00 am airport pick up and 3:30 pm departure, thank goodness for quick entrance and exits at Love Field.
Enjoy your Friday and Weekend!
JK
PS One of the Kvale’s (Pamela) most celebrated holidays is Halloween. After finally acquiescing to ONLY ONE item, spiders (we are not even to October yet?) we are the proud house on the block with 13 spiders outside on the front of the house and another 30 or so inside …. okay…mix a skeleton or two in there…..overkill….
Posted onAugust 17, 2012byJohn Kvale CFA, CFP|Comments Off on The boring Capital Market Week that was…..Exciting Office updating week ahead!
Wow, it has been a long time since capital markets have taken such a long nap. We are not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, but as stated earlier in the week, we noted that the trading volumes have seen near decade off-holiday lows. News has been unable to change the index levels much, good or bad. Many must be on holiday with Zigg as his island has run low of supplies lately, due to overcrowding!
We expect much of the same next week in the capital markets which is great as we will have our own internal volatility. Late next week the carpet comes up, the pictures down, and new paint finds its way to the walls of our offices at 8222 Douglas. We also have new phones being switched (ported is the actual term) and with little scheduling ability control, we will most certainly awaken sometime in the next two weeks to new phones ringing, hopefully working perfectly. Our expectations are cautious at best!
Thanks again for reading our work this week and we will see you in the saddle next week!
Posted onAugust 3, 2012byJohn Kvale CFA, CFP|Comments Off on Thank you Ben, Overconfident on Technology Upgrade, Rise of the Machines – Traveling
In the week that just was, Big Ben scoffed the so-called “Leaks” that we also mentioned and did not add any additional “Cowbell” easing. This is just fine with us as we are hopeful the US can “Take the Training Wheels Off” and ride on its own. The longer Big Ben waits the better we are, in our opinion….no more candy please!
On a personal/office note (one in the same frequently) our mid-week victory technology dance turned out a bit premature as my personal VPN turned up the victim of our new high-speed connection, and refused to play along. After eight hours of tethered connections to our IT folks from home attempting to remotely connect to the office, the issue has been resolved. It is all good! Next step VOIP phones, which are on order and due to arrive in two weeks for an end of August install….fingers crossed.
While much has been mentioned of the recent machine induced spike in trading volumes which occurred on Wednesday morning, we see it as more of a yawner than a concern. HFT (high frequency trading) is here and provides liquidity for those that correctly go to the market to exchange one investment idea for a hopeful better one. Most do not trade in terms of seconds, but rather years, so while we watch the minute to minute changes for opportunity, we rarely react to such movements. (For the record we have an unwritten rule, not to execute transactions within 30 minutes of the open or close as we have found over the years large variances can occur.)
Traveling for the next few, but of course will be happily tethered (via the eight-hour VPN setup ..ha) to the office.
Have a Great Weekend and a Super Day!
JK
PS Next week some neat announcements including The Best Financial Planner award, a recent interview with Fidelity, and a save the date for our Kids themed Holiday party!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial advisor prior to investing!
Background
The is the vocal portion of J.K. Financial, Inc. a Dallas Texas Based Fee Only Total Wealth Financial Planning Firm. Founded by John Kvale, a Dallas Texas Fee only Financial Planner and Total Wealth Manager.
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Halloween Follow Up (Picture as promised) … Brain in AGAIN … Preview of Next week … NAPFA … Video
We hope you all had a fun and safe Halloween. As promised, Halloween being a family favorite, I have attached a picture at the bottom of this post to humor you into the weekend.
The Brain In the House AGAIN
Today “The Brain” Donald Capone is in the house once again for a very quick turnaround CFA Institute event. We will both be out of the office for most of the day due to this event.
Next Week Happenings
Next week brings our Video summary review for October…Wow… this year continues to go quickly, some interesting news on why we joined NAPFA (National Association of Personal Financial Advisors), the official Holiday Party Invite, among a few other items (26.2 on deck.)
Ahhh…but that is next week, and today is a Friday heading into a weekend. Enjoy yours, thanks for reading our writings, and do not forget to spend time with those special in your life.
Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend !
John Kvale CFA, CFP
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com http://www.street-cents.com 8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225 Here is your Picture!!Share this:
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Posted in A Look Back and The Week Ahead, Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Market Comments, Personal
Tagged Halloween, Napfa, The Brain, Weekly Summary