Category Archives: A Look Back and The Week Ahead

Welcome to a FAST December – Friday

Have you taken a look at how the calendar falls this year ?calendar-1192688

If not, take a minute to look, it requires extra planning as it will be a FAST month… As planners we are attempting to determine what days will be the holiday honored?

Looks like New Years will be honored on Monday, January 2, 2017!

All else is up for grabs….

Today is a Friday and after a heavy week of posts, we wanted you to glide into your weekend…. Enjoy and watch out, it will be the end of the year before we know it!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Halloween Follow Up (Picture as promised) … Brain in AGAIN … Preview of Next week … NAPFA … Video

We hope you all had a fun and safe Halloween. As promised, Halloween being a family favorite, I have attached a picture at the bottom of this post to humor you into the weekend.

The Brain In the House AGAIN

Today “The Brain” Donald Capone is in the house once again for a very quick turnaround CFA Institute event. We will both be out of the office for most of the day due to this event.

Next Week Happenings

Next week brings our Video summary review for October…Wow… this year continues to go quickly, some interesting news on why we joined NAPFA (National Association of Personal Financial Advisors), the official Holiday Party Invite, among a few other items (26.2 on deck.)

Ahhh…but that is next week, and today is a Friday heading into a weekend. Enjoy yours, thanks for reading our writings, and do not forget to spend time with those special in your life.

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend !

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225
 
Here is your Picture!!
2013 Halloween
 

2013 August Capital Market and Economic Review (Video)

Even with much of the country on vacation as well as the world, August 2013 was a month with important events occurring.

August 2013 Video by John Kvale

Earning estimates and confessions slow

As we have noted throughout the year analyst estimate have been too high and continue to drop.

S & P 500 Estimates 2013

The Great GDP Revision

Ed Dolan at Seeking Alpha wrote a nice article about the changing of the GDP calculation. We were somewhat surprised at the easy acceptance of the new data, as we wrote before the adjustments.

GDP Revisions Ed Dolan

Pretty much all you need to know can be inferred by the chart above…yes, the new numbers are better…hmmmmm

Interest Rates continue to march higher

Higher Rates are a headwind to stocks and a downer for the value of bond holdings. August, while a quiet month often, saw rates as low as 2.55% only to see a high of 2.92%…approaching the 3% first digit handle.

10 Year Yield 9-4-13

Bad month end Economic numbers, one time or trend beginning? New HOmes Sales and Durable Goods

New home sales comments from Econoday released 8-23-13:

“In a report that strongly shakes up the housing outlook, new home sales plunged to a 394,000 annual rate in July vs the Econoday consensus for 487,000 and the Econoday low estimate of 450,000. And there’s more bad news. For a second month in a row, the report includes major downward revisions to the two prior months totaling 62,000 in this report. The 394,000 rate for July is the lowest since October with low double-digit monthly declines hitting three of four regions and a mid-single digit monthly decline hitting the Northeast.”

The following Monday, 8-26-13, durable good orders came in weaker than expected as well. As the chart shows below, this is a volatile metric.

Durable Goods Econoday 8-26-13

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

May 2013 Summary of Eventful Capital Market and Economic Items: John Kvale of J.K. Financial, Inc. (Video)

Goodbye May 2013, we wanted to hit a few of the high points! The year is not slowing down so far, but with the official entrance into the summer doldrums we expect slower motion for a while.

Here is our May 2013 Capital Market and Economic summary video, by John Kvale

The 10 Year Treasury

Interest Rates from high above on a longer term do not look to bad…actually it looks very good.  As a general rule, lower rates are helpful to valuations, interest costs along with margins and long-term confidence.

10 Year Yield 1960 to Current

10 Year Yield 1960 to Current

Yikes ! When we look at a shorter term chart, the story may be changing as rates have begun to rise somewhat faster than many may have expected. Rising rates act as a mild headwind unless they rise too fast. We will keep our eyes peeled on this matter.

10 Year Yield YTD 2013

10 Year Yield YTD 2013

Ben Bernanke’s Punch Bowl AKA QE Taper…not Tipper

If you are one that likes to debate…step right up. The debate is on, and it is anyone’s guess when the Fed will slow the gigantic $85 billion monthly purchases of fixed securities. For the record, the Fed has been mashing on the gas long enough now that they actually purchase more than $85 billion monthly, as prior purchased securities are maturing and have to be re-invested.Bernanke

This debate is a major contributor to our prior subject, interest rates. IF and WHEN the Fed really let’s off the gas pedal, the fear is what rates will actually do….or more over, how fast and how far they will rise. Buckle up and let’s all hold on, if the Fed draws a line in the sand we may begin to see who has been swimming with no swim trunks…..not us of course!

Continued enthusiasm….Party like it’s 1999

The most surprising continued element happening this year is the huge rise in market valuations given the slow growth that is being recorded. Do not get us wrong…things are getting better in MANY aspects of the economy, but are theyEnthusiasm REALLY getting THAT MUCH better?  We do not think so, given the data we have at this time. Current market growth was 3% over the last quarter…awesome that is great…but a 10% plus move in the US capital markets is a bit extreme…in our opinion.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225 

April 2013 is Gone…Your Capital Market Review…and Video

Here is your April Review Video…Good News, this one is even shorter and to the point (thanks for the suggestions..haha) Next up, how to figure out how to get a more flattering picture on the initial screen.

Hope you enjoy the April 2013 J.K. Financial, Inc. John Kvale Capital Market Video Review

Our first point from April is Interest rates…..yikes…but a better finish.

We watch interest rates as a sign for the possibility of growth and or a slow down. GENERALLY, but not always a lower rate tends to proceed slowdowns. Rates on the 10 year fell to well below 1.70% signaling a slow down or an increase in fear. Early in May rates have found their footing and are moving back to less of a slowdown signaling level.

10 Year Yield

Taxes and Expenses from the Congressional Budge Office

Given April 15th is personal tax day and we have mentioned that it was a hard tax season this year as many/most seemed to be paying more, we dug this chart from the Congressional Budget Office forecast for 2013 and sure enough, they are expecting a much larger increase as well. Good forecasting on their part and unfortunately lighter pocket books on our part. We sure wish those lines would cross..meaning a balanced budget.

CBO Rev V Exp

Boston Marathon a tragic event

In a very crazy moment of a positive event gone south, the explosions of the Boston Marathon mark a spot in our April review. We wish all those that were injured a speedy recovery and we are happy for a quick capture.

Boston Marathon Explosion

That’s it for April. Hello May, hopefully you will not pass us so quickly.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale

214-706-4300

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Our First Video (Review and Preview), February…Where did you go? The Brain hits the slopes

With a year that is flying by we wanted to take a moment to look back at a couple of key events of the latest month, February 2013……good bye:February 2013

  • Sequestration, the $85 billion overhype…While a large amount to you and me, $85 billion is just not enough in an economy as large as the US to move the needle, although it has been talked about more than we would have thought
  • Dude I want my Dell back….Michael Dell goes after his company and attempts to take it private at a price below what current shareholders desire, fighters take your corners..the only rule is there are no rules…
  • No QE to Infinity?..Surprise…. Some fed governors begin talking about removing the punch bowl early, maybe even this year and market participants as well as bonds take notice, as of late in the month chief dove, Chairman Uncle Ben Bernanke assures markets the punch bowl will remain; In our opinion the dialogue has begun and will continue

On a personal note, as we head into the weekend, Donald The Brain will be out a few days next week as he and his wife take to the slopes with friends for some pre-spring break fun. The computers here at the office will be happy with a much-needed and deserved rest from his regular workouts.

In a new for us, for those such as myself that are more visual and audible, I have enclosed a short video with thoughts to go along with this month end review.

Let us know your thoughts

Have a Great Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

A Night of reflection, the coming week kicks off the earnings treadmill, RMD’s, and a long weekend for some..

Last night I had the honor to receive the FPA Honor’s award from the Financial Planning Association of Dallas Fort Worth.  There is no way to express in words the collective passion, integrity, intelligence and dedication that attendees and fellow recipients shared at the meeting. It was a terrific night of reflection of the last 24 years in the industry and another reason I am thankful to be in this industry servicing clients and friends, such as those who may be reading this.

In addition to earnings season officially kicking off next week with the October 9th announcement of our steady friend Alcoa, Quarterly performance reports and our slightly cynical Newsletter will hit the mailboxes and electronic vaults as well.

We will begin processing Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) for those that have such requirements next week as well, staying well ahead of the end of the year requirement.

The post office, bankers, and my kids have Monday off in celebration of Columbus day. As such we would expect a slower than normal day today in the afternoon as well as Monday.

Have a great Friday and a super weekend!

JK

214-706-4300

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590

Dallas, TX 75225