Category Archives: Video

Q4 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Slowdown Time to Clear, Ben Hunt Narratives, Peter Zeihan Global thoughts … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q4 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 4 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Patience – Real Slowdowns take a while to clear

Bear Markets about 20 months

Slowdowns average about 14 months

Narratives by Ben Hunt

With the news being the worst near the tail end of a slowdown, after crossing paths with Ben over five times, we thought it a great time to review some of his thoughts and research…

The Missionary Statement or Strong Direct Narrative

Ben and his partner theorized that Missionary statements once saved for Oval Office wartime speeches or the like are now used in part due to the way we consume our information by almost everyone, leading to an overload possibly of missionary or breaking news like headlines and narratives.

The possible effect of strong missionary statements or narratives, again Ben theorizes is that when there is the need for a very strong subject matter or narrative, if we are not careful we have become desensitized to things because of the possible dramatization of other headlines and narratives that it’s not taken serious. Said simply, the boy who cried wolf

“Why am I reading this, and why am I reading it now?”

Dr. Hunt mentions that they have actually had a number of news organizations and authors directly communicate with he and his partner in order to make sure or check that they are not accidentally using a narrative, which is a fantastic possible change moving forward

Peter Zeihan – Russian Ukraine Thoughts – Demographics made It Now or Never

With regards to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Peter theorizes that this is a recapture of multiple ports of invasion that Russia has given up over the past many decades. He also mentions that because of poor demographics the Russian invasion was an absolute necessity sooner rather than later due too an aging population

Interest Rate Thoughts

“The Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell, has long wanted to get rates up to a more normalized level”   For the record this has been a known goal in the halls of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve for that matter.

Peter goes on, “Seems to be a feeling from the Fed Officials, that if a recession is going to happen anyway, let’s get our toolkit back of a higher interest rates!”

Talk to you after the turn of the calendar !l!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

August 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – YAY …. Holiday Party Location Revealed – 401k Run Rate – Wall Street Mistake to Our Advantage, Bloated Inventory – Slowdown Contra Bounces and Pivot Narrative Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our August 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Holiday Venue Announced –

Thanks for the tease jabs last week… deserved…haha

Dallas Museum of Art

Details to Come – Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

August 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Check that 401k Run Rate – Are we hitting our contribution goals?

Here in this post we remind everyone now is a good time to check the run rate for your 401k contributions….

The reason now is a good time is we have time to make up any shortcomings, should they be discovered…

Bloated Inventories – Wall Street Woes = Main Street Savings

With large public companies fessing up that they have accidentally over inventoried and will be slashing prices to move said bloats….

Now may be a good time for a MANDATORY purchase….

As we mentioned in our post here, we have done some spiffing up of the office in conjunction with our new lease signing… Maybe too many people took our post to heart…. options are greatly reduced on some of our updates…yikes

Capital Market Comments

Hill Street Blues Reminder – Let’s be Careful Out there

In our post here, we highlight as a reminder that slowing/recession markets can have interesting contra bounces… but as our Hill Street Blue’s Chief always stated….

Let’s be careful out there…

Jackson Hole – No Pivot

Along with contra bounces comes a narrative that usually gets some traction…

Sure enough, this bouncing narrative was the Jerome Powell was already Pivoting to a slower hand (Economically not important as the cards have been dealt- digressing) …

Jerome Powell announced in his last weekend speech …. not only NO PIVOT but get ready for some Pain….Wow….

Care to guess when the announcement occurred?

Not to worry we are most definitely …… Being Careful Out there!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

July 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Back to Basics Tax Return PLANNING – Legacy Health Coverage – Feds Pickle – Yield Curve Inverts – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our July 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Income Tax PLANNING

In our final fun “Back to Basics” review we discuss Tax PLANNING….

From the post:

Coincidentally, the most important part of Tax Planning is the second word in the subject, Planning!

As we individual or corporate tax payers traverse the tax year, it’s important to take note of unusual events that may be occurring. We’re certainly not saying you have to worry about this every minute of the day, but should you have an unusual increase in income, or decrease in income, this should be thought about before the end of the year for your tax planning.

Later in the post we discuss the key items in reviewing your return as well….. in step by step format!

Legacy Health Coverages

After running into several situations of legacy health care options for long time former employees… Here in this post we outline the possibilities of bridge Health Coverage from legacy companies and how fantastic of an option this can be…

In almost every situation, the key is these plans are not easily discovered. In order to find out if you have an option, it’s best to dig out contact information from HR of your old employer and reach out to them directly.

This is an expense to your former employer, so it would be expected not to receive multiple information regarding such a plan, but if available it could greatly help in bridging the gap for Medicare should we be in the situation of needing coverage before age 65. 

Capital Market Comments

Bond Market turns Upside Down – The R Word

After the second negative GDP print … see next note of Fed’s Pickle…. the bond market really began to price in the R Word…. Here in this post we discuss the inversion of long bonds to short and their meaning…

The Fed’s Pickle

In this post, BEFORE the actual GDP announcement, we discussed the Fed’s pickle, with a hot economy (CPI inflation holding tight) BUT an economy that is slowing …..even qualifying as the R Word now – Recession!

From the BLS release after our post :

Q2 2022 (Adv)-0.9%
Q1 2022 (3rd)-1.6%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.

The definition of recession is negative two quarters GDP….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

June 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Investing KISS – Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our June 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

June 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Investing – KISS (Keep it simple silly)

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Investing our next to last in the series … and just Keeping it Simple in doing so….

From the post:

While many analysis dig so deep into investments that it makes your eyes glaze over, there are really two important parts of investing. KISS – Keep is simple silly

  • 1. Save as much as you possibly can, and s early as you can.
  • 2. Make sure your allocation above is such that during rough rainy times, a.k.a. slowdown/recession you do not eject and sell. Our human nature of fight or flight will take you out of your investment portfolio at exactly the wrong time if you are over allocated to risky investments.

Shady Used Car Offer –

In true musician like unknowing of a popular song… Our post here of a shady used car offer turned out to be a hit…

A true, made as succinct story of a mom having multiple increasing offers of her teenage seniors late model car after being told it was totaled caught a nerve….

We received comments from across the country, many of folks we do not even know, but chimed in to give their two cents worth….

Maybe slightly controversial …. for the record we try to stay away from too much drama as there is enough roaming around the airwaves, but we could just not resist this true story!

Trust but verify those used car offers!

Capital Market Comments

Atlanta Fed Predicts Slowdown – The R Word

Literally in the last week of the quarter, out pops an updated research report from the Atlanta Federal Reserve called their GDP Nowcast

After holding strong at a 1% Q2 2022 GDP estimate for some time, new data entered into their model dropped the estimate WAY down to -2.1% for their most recent estimate…. see far right green line of the graph….

If correct, this means the US is officially in a recession already!

We will talk much more on this soon, but for the record we were very surprised at much of the Wall Street Reaction to this report, most notably interest rates, which went down dramatically!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q3 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Positives Graphic Theme … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q3 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

BREAK IN – Our new format of greater articles continues as we received many positive comments last quarter…. this quarter we run with it again, but we do have a constant theme…. Positives!

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 3 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

With just shy of 10 charts, we plucked out our favorite three and Review them here in great detail:

In the video, we go into great detail and each one and we hope you enjoy!

TSA throughput is back to almost 2019 levels without the road warrior business traveler!

Being social folks, after a large spike in eating at home (red line), the continued progression and overtake of eating out has occurred!

Lot’s of ways to look at this, but in our positive eyes, more inventory means better options, especially for new home owners!

We hope you enjoy our over the top Positives … talk to you in the fall!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

May 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our May 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Estate Planning – No Fears of Fancy Terminology

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Estate Planning…

From the post:

Rather than go into the complexities of all of the documents, keeping with our “Back to Basics” theme, we are going to go into what you need to think about to easily complete all of your Estate Documents. Don’t worry about the fancy legal and financial terms, if you can answer the following few questions, your Estate Documents can be easily completed …

The hardest part of doing an Estate Plan is just starting…. Go ahead and read this post if you have been procrastinating its not hare once you start!

Lump Sum Offer Reminder

After running into an unusual offer from a Pension Buy Out, we reminded ourselves these generally come in Waves….

In this Pension Buy Out Reminder post we discuss the most important items…

Trust But Verify, offers can be wildly in accurate!

Capital Market Comments

Look Forward, Not Back

In this early month post here, we discuss Jerome Powell’s 180 turn from stimulus to brake and in particular as it relates to interest rates…

Then again in a similar post an update on Interest Rates….

While counter intuitive, as the FOMC/Jerome Powell raise interest rates, historically interest rates eventually fall as the Brake action kicks in and slows the economy

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of June!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

April 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our April 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

April 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Educational Funding

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Educational Funding…

Here is one very important item to remember from the post:

Did you notice we put Retirement Planning BEFORE Education planning? Do you recall in Part 3 in Debt Planning we said one of the few good debts are educational related debts ….We of course are not advocating Student debt/loans… but they are available in abundance and again not a bad debt. There are not retirement planning loans…. just saying!

Proxy Vote Reminder

In this post we remind you to please reach out if you have fallen off the list for us to proxy vote for you!

If you are getting those pesky Proxy Notices (some can be small books- oh the trees that are destroyed- digressing) reach out to us, we not only vote the Proxies for you, but we get one single notice for everyone, and Jen has done an excellent job in getting a great deal of those electronically…. Did we say how Green this is?

Capital Market Comments

The Slowdown is Here

We first started speaking of the slowdown in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter here in our “Anatomy of a Slowdown” main aricle actually released in December of 2021….

And then again, here in our Q 2 2022 Newsletter ….

Then again here, here, here, here, and again here.… among a few other times…

Last week the BEA “Officially Released” a negative GDP print as noted here in our post and in this chart….

Never get the timing exactly, but we are not surprised and have been waiving the flag here in our talks and are prepared!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Interest Rates on the Rise, Bond Prices Versus Interest Rates, The Bigger Coupon, Possible Peak Rates … Special Video Analysis Refresher/Reminder …

With multiple comments over the last few weeks and a pick up in headlines concerning interest rates, we decided to do an analysis and review! We also have added a video to help explain some of the complexities associated with rates and bonds … as while at face value bonds are a simple animal, their movements can be puzzling.

The main reason for the increased headlines and comments are when rates go up, the value of bonds goes down initially, and rates have really jumped dramatically for various reasons.

YouTube

Briefly as a reminder, Bond aka Fixed Income aka corporates aka treasuries aka high yield aka Fixed Income instruments are nothing more than a note with an income stream to the purchaser of the bond! There is a saying the bond market is “Smart” because you only have to worry about the ability and willingness of the lender to pay… nothing else…

Rates and Bonds – I Go Up, You Go Down

The Green line is the yield on the 10 year treasury… The red is a huge bond fund from Vanguard called the BND….

No doubt that this is an almost perfect inverse relationship.

One detail worth mentioning, longer term bonds are more volatile, both up and down than shorter term i.e. A one year bond will not move near as much as a 30 year. This makes sense because the longer the term, the more payments that are owed and the more change in the prevailing rate effects the bond.

Fast Fast Fast Movement

In true, be careful what you ask for fashion, (we have long been positive towards higher interest rates) rates have moved incredibly fast, especially Mortgage Back Securities which are pools of mortgages used for determining current new rates…

This is the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage…. as of yesterday, this rate was well over 5%…this rate is almost double the rate just a few quarters ago…. With eventual supply, our home asset is facing some headwinds !

Much of this rate movement is coming from Federal Reserve Bank Presidents public comments…..

Why would they do this? To slow the economy… if they can get the market to move rates up, their job is easier ….heck if they can get market participants to do all the work, the Fed would hardly need to do anything… plus markets are much faster to react than the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

Bigger Coupon

Once interest rates move, a new bigger income stream is the net effect… New purchases or re-investments are met with bigger income payments…

This continued higher income payment begins paying back the headwind of the drop in value as shown in the first chart…

Clipping that coupon will be nicer as rates increase!

How Far Can they Go? Rates and the FOMC?

Here comes is the sizzle…. be careful on extrapolating higher rates into the future… this extrapolation has garnered a lot of headlines as of late …. Whoaaaa

This is about a 35 year chart… go back farther, to a much younger demographic, there was a time when the FOMC raised interest rates to the roof… think 15-18% to tamp out inflation….

With an economy today of much more debt to service and older (more savers, less spender) demographics the last four decades have been a slow but continued lower longer term rate….

Note the top of the prior interest rate cycle looks like the top of the FOMC rate hike…again the last four decades….

Stall Speed

With the afore mentioned cycle high repeating as the following cap on rates, looks like, although very fast rate movement recently, the majority of the move is likely over….and therefore less headwind for the value of bonds and bigger coupons….

Lastly… a slowdown in economic times or a rush for the safety of our simple friends usually leads to a reversal in rates and a repeat of the afore mentioned process…but in reverse… lower rates, higher prices!

Have a Great “Bonds and Interest Rate Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

March 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our March 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

March 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Homestead Reminder – New Primary Residence in 2021

In our “Reminder to Homestead” Post found here, we discuss/remind anyone who has established a new primary residence in 2021 to check out the Homesteading laws of your state.

Using our home state of Texas as an example, there are ample tax savings and no downside to homesteading your home!

Annual Credit Score Reminder

In this annual reminder post, we direct everyone their free annual credit report, with instructions on how to review your report and why it is a good idea to check that credit…….

From the post….

Why Do I need to Know or protect my score?

While you may not owe anyone, anything i.e. have a loan with anyone … well done by the way….. A bad credit score can still affect items such as your automobile and your homeowners premiums… no kidding (see this  Forbes article.) We cannot blame them, there is data to check and it is their responsibility and ability to review it.

Bottom line a bad credit score or report may be costing you more money.

Capital Market Comments

CPI – Consumer Price Index Further Analysis

More hard comparables come in the form of inflated CPI numbers from last year..

In this post we discuss the large stimulus infusion this time last year and why it will be a giant headwind to further CPI increases….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of April! Still Going fast this year!!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Q2 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q2 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

BREAK IN – We are trying a new format of articles that are shorter, and hit a very wide variety of topics that should interest all ages and chapters…. Let us know what you think?

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 2 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

All about the Stimulus Base Effects and the Coming Comparable (Hurdles)

In our main article, a somewhat follow up article to our Q 1 2022 Newsletter Main Article “Anatomy of a Slowdown” we review the base effects we as an economy are about to have to hurdle.

Sale of many companies exploded higher, similar to the one below, but now must be digested..

Look Back Tax Savings – Spousal IRA – SEP – HSA  , These can be done before your filing due date of April 18 to Possible Lower Your 2021 Taxes 

With tax season officially underway, actually nearing an end, the official filing date for non-extension regular Form 1040 Filers is April 18th, 2022 (this year) for year 2021 tax filings, just a few weeks out. There are a few tax saving ideas that even with the turn of the calendar can be implemented to possibly help last year’s income taxes. 

Self Employed Pension plan-the SEP as it’s commonly called is a great vehicle to offset income that is not of the W2 type, think consulting income.

The Spousal “Qualified IRA” is another handy tool to use if one of the spouses does not have any form of a retirement plan.

The HSA. One of the great parts of the HSA is you only need a high-deductible health insurance plan

Estate and Gift Planning Update – Annual Gifting Amount – Estate Tax Update 

Annual Gift amount upped to $16k per person

Estate Tax Stands at $12.06 million per person or $22.12 million per couple

“Last year certainly garnered many headlines of possible changes in much of the estate tax laws. In all fairness we fielded many questions and thankfully once again stuck to our mantra of until it is law, one should be very careful at making preemptive adjustments. There certainly can be changes in the future, but again short of knee jerk reactions, we tend to like for law mandates to be made for reaction, rather than rumors. “

Financial Planning/Retirement Planning Trick for those Early in the Workforce – Roth contribution for young working

Helping a new worker contribute to a Roth and an early age to jumpstart a retirement program…

From the Article…

“Most likely if a young worker is making a very nominal amount, and possibly still living at home, they will not have the cash flow to contribute to any type of retirement plan. But if someway somehow they can make a Roth contribution at least up to their earnings at a very young age the long term positive consequences of this can obviously be fantastic.”

“If a 17 year old was somehow able to get $6000 in a Roth (one time!) and earn 8% a year at age 66 he/she would have about $191,000. If that same 17 year old were somehow able to get $6000 a year until he or she was 23, (five years), and had the same 8% compounding until he or she was 66 there would be a nest egg of just under $1,000,000. That $1,000,000 would not be subject under current tax laws, to mandatory required minimum distributions (RMS;s) nor again under current tax laws would it be taxable income upon distribution.”

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in the summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com