Category Archives: Investing/Financial Planning

Deep Dive on Interest Rates and Yield Curves … With Helpful Comments … New Fancy Fonts and Colors

Alright, if the title did not scare you off… hope not, we wanted to review the current state of interest rates, with some helpful (in our humble opinion IMHO) comments !

Here we go!

Deep Dive on Interest Rates

First up the US 1 Year Treasury

Think of this as your checking account interest with a little extra earnings … hence the one year time frame.

Seems long ago with all the worlds events, but not too long ago we were in the mid 2% range, currently at .12% ….

Many say we will be in this lower range for a long time, short sighted in our minds, but time will tell!

Next up the US 10 Year Treasury

Think of this as our proxy for mortgage rates, long term inflation and general economic growth expectations.

Not so long ago, in the mid 2% zone looking like we were headed to 3% … today .64%.

Many of the same folks saying we will be here for a long time. We will see!

10 Year Treasury Versus 90 Day Treasury – The Recession Predictor

Not sure if it was luck or just prophetic markets, but when this chart drops below zero (AKA Yield curve inverts) frequently a slowdown comes !

Inversion much of 2019 and then again during the early stages of the lock down.

Take special note of the spike in late March… recall that was when investors tossed their “safe” fixed income investments out the door because they had not other assets they wanted to sell … after the initial spike, normalcy returned.

US versus UK One Year Rates

Thought this was very interesting ….

This most recent interest rate cycle was shallow compared to historical norms, notice how the UK rates were even more shallow.

Many other countries could be inserted here as well with the same result

There you have it, a deep dive on domestic interest rates, yield curves and international comparisons….

Last Friday a new “Block Editor” was forced upon us … think of it as a makeover for all publishing/editing tools on our blog – initially HATED it….but upon further review we are getting used to it and hope you like some of the new fancy features – Like the Big A to start the post!

Have a Great “Deep Dive Interest Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Environmentally Sustainable ? Net Carbon Zero or Negative …What is it and what are Companies doing about it?

According to the United Nations (UN) World Commission on Environment and Development, environmental sustainability is about acting in a way that ensures future generations have the natural resources available to live an equal, if not better, way of life as current generations.

Here is a chart explaining, again from the UN …

Un Sustainable Chart

 

What Companies Are Embracing?

In the United States and abroad, many companies are not only embracing Environmental Sustainability but some are even vowing to reverse possible damages they may have done in the past making them Environmentally positive…

Tech Companies lead the way…but others are also following…

Microsoft committing to being carbon negative by 2030

Amazon committing to being carbon net zero by 2040

Ikea committing to being carbon negative by 2030

Apple committing to being net carbon zero by 2030

BP – yep British Pretroleum goal of carbon zero by 2050 !! Wow

Hey… will they all get there, maybe or maybe not…but what a great, good feeling, better future goal!

Have a Great “The Future is Bright and Environment is Better” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Money Versus Markets from Our Friends at Visual Capitalist … Quadrillion Notional Value

The most interesting part of this chart from our friends at Visual Capitalist in our opinion is the synthetic versus notional value of assets… What?

Ok… so we laid some Wall Street Gibberish on you…

All of this is near the end of the chart…

Derivatives …. A synthetic product is basically a product of some type that allows you to use a small amount of money to control a larger amount of assets… most importantly for a defined period of time…..

Used correctly, most of these types of products are for lowering risk, also called hedging…

Used aggressively, these products are speculative and can cause harm to an investors portfolio….

Notional or real value of the assets held by Derivatives are currently a Quadrillion … not a term used frequently… such the interest…

It’s a long chart, but very informative and interesting… take a moment to digest… think it worth it!

 

8-1-20 Visual Cap Money and Markets

 

Hope you enjoyed !

Have a Great “Quadrillion Notional Value” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Funny Friday…The Worst Email You Can Get From Your Office Landlord … Especially while on the Road … A Chuckle for You at Our Expense ….

After two heavy posts this week, here and here … lots of charts that we find VERY interesting, but know not all are as enthusiastic …

How about a personal experience to set your Friday heading into the weekend with at least a giggle… maybe an out right laugh… all at our expense….

Here we go – actual events that just occurred — ENJOY

Oh no….

WATER LEAK !!!

img_7329

And it’s Growing RAPIDLY ???????????

Luckily an email check withing seconds led to an immediate phone call to the management office and an immediate “Ok” for the building engineer to enter our office….

Tick, Tock ….

img_7330

Note the just a moment comment, along with the final email ….

img_7332

That was a long long 45 minutes… for those non-office renters, it is each tenants responsibility to keep their suite tidy and not bother (leak down) on others… insurance for this of course, but never fun and not a claimer!

Thought you might like a fun Friday chuckle garnered from our stress… with two heavy posts early a good funny to end the week!

Have a Great “Whew not our Leak” Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

More Positive Data Points …. Factset Earnings … JOLTS Job Openings … PPI Producer Prices …

As promised, last week, we have some more good data points….

Again, we feel Market Participants maybe a bit overzealous here … expect bumps …

BUT … the earnings and economic front are showing good data points…

S&P 1 Month Earnings Estimates From Our Friends at Factset

Take note of the usual guide down historically in this chart, with this months most recent, bucking the trend… Nice

8-3-20 Fact Set Earnings estimates

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turn Over – aka Jobs Available

The Jolts report is a good measure of the possible jobs available in the US Economy (Watched closely by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – The FED)

What is important about this report, is the expectation was for about 4.9 million jobs and the actual came FAR ahead at 5.9 million … Nice X 2

8-11-20 Jolts 4.8 exp 5.9 actual

PPI – Producer Price Index – Price of Production Items

Lastly and briefly, so as not to have you think you have fallen into an Economics class….haha

The PPI is a broad measure of domestic producer sales prices… when it’s going up, there is demand and more importantly when down, slack…

There are various ways to measure this Economic report (Core, Month over month, year over year, %)  … all measurements beat their estimates handily …. Nice X 3!

8-11-20 Core PPI

There you have it… some nice market and economic numbers for your summer hump day!

Have a Great “Economics Beating Expectations” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

NY Federal Reserve Tweet : Total Consumer Debt DOWN in Q 2 2020 …What? … Deep Dive into the Consumer Balance Sheet

Mid-Week last week, a NY Federal Reserve Research tweet lead to the following report….

img_7342

Q 2 2020 Consumer Debt DECREASE?

Not believing the headline…. How could there have been a DECREASE ?

A deeper dive into the report was due!

In prior writings/research this report has been a staple of a resource so familiarity in the set up made the review easier…

In fact, Q 2 2020 shows a decrease in total consumer debt!

Notice the rise up to the great slowdown of 2007-2009 and then a pull in the wings for about five years, until early 2014?

Did it take five years to regain confidence?

Certainly, this could be just a blip, as one quarter does not a trend make.

If it does continue down, as it did during the post 09 peak, we should be able to infer there is a great belt tightening ability across the board for the consumer….

Q2 2020 total Debt

The following chart, also from the same report shows a drop in delinquency status, predominantly in the 120 day range … this may be a result of some of the forbearance ability due to the stimulus packages, but logically that should hit the shorter term, in our opinion.

Q2 2020 Total Delenquency Status

Lastly, digging even deeper, the drop by loan type is showing the most movement in the shorter term and most evil credit card balance, followed by the less evil Auto Loan….

Q 2 2020 Total Account By Loan account

Could we really be turning Lemons into Lemonade ?

Hope So!

Have a Great “Puzzling but Hopeful Consumer Debt” day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

DOJ Approves Merger, Great News for The Brain …. Sports is starting (Big Weekend) …. Shark Week begins too … Travels … Friday

As mentioned here, TDAmeritrade and Charles Schwab agreed to merge early on in the year, (wow that seems like a long time ago- digressing) and due to government regulations, the DOJ (Department of Justice) needed to bless the deal – antitrust thoughts – too big, monopoly questions … it was on hold!

DOJ Approves – Brain in the Driver’s seatDonald Capone

Good News …. the deal was approved, and even better news for The Brain, as noted here and here, is an expert with a very special portfolio management and trading technology, which the combined companies announced this week would be a part of the new joint effort.

Not only that, but The Brain is already a part of a new Beta group, which had gone silent… (likely to start up again) to integrate even more features which The Brain will be a major advisor….

Well Done Donald!

Sports Starts = A Full Weekend! Golf, Basketball, Baseball, Football

Long time followers know, that while the family is a total Tennis nuts and crazy family, your’s truly was a collegiate golfer, helping pay for three years of college via scholarships.

This weekend, a Major Championship on the favorite West Coast time makes for the perfect late evening … Sunday night viewing of the final nine of the Tournament.

Basketball (NBA) continues it’s fast tracking season with only a few more games until the abbreviated playoffs.

But don’t stop there …. Baseball (MLB) after a few scares, missed games due to infections and paused events, seems to be back on track….

NFL  …. professional football start more workouts in full force too !

Shark Week Starts – A Family FavoriteShark Week Logo

Sunday night, hopefully just after a fantastic final Golf Championship concludes,  a family favorite begins…

Break in, coincidence or not? – After a few years of moving to earlier calendar (family dislike) it is now back to early August – Ok … digressing again…

SHARK WEEK 

Discovery Channels Shark Week commences at 8 PM Central Sunday Night and airs until the following Sunday….

In a hitting home on some programs … Jen at the office mentioned an unusual occurrence in her home town of Long Island, that we both think are a part of the special…

Friday Travels

If you are still with me (THANKS)  … long post for a Friday – much appreciate your time, you may recall a few special events for the Mrs. – will be out next week but tethered electronically …. and already have some very interesting Economic and Market News to speak of – tease tease – nerd nerd too!

Ahhhh….. but it is a Friday, enjoy your day, your weekend, your friends and family and chat with you next week from afar!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying Yet?

Several months ago, we stumbled across TSA Throughput numbers (never knew they existed) and have found interest in monitoring the numbers.

Here was our first look 49 days ago to be exact….

img_7292

Over the most recent weekend, on a regularly evening bike ride near the house, two days in a row, multiple large jets made their way over, disrupting the most recently quietened skies…. even enough time for a quick pic …

Time for an update – glad to have kept the chart template -hence the logo too  – so here we go!

TSA Throughput Update – Are We Flying yet?

We are definitely flying MORE …

8-1-20 TSA Throughput w logo

 

 

But hold on … the above chart does not tell the whole story –

8-1-20 TSA Throughput V year ago

Wow… that’s amazing to us … just how fast it was shut down, how much we have come back since the bottom, but yet how much farther we have to go before back to normal….

Will keep the monitoring up, maybe the planes spotted over the weekend were just coincidence?

No matter, time will clarify and we will be watching!

Have a Great “Their Kinda Traveling” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

July 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale …

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

Careful Use of Credit Cards to Maximize Perkscredit card

We carefully spoke on the use of Credit Cards and maximizing their points and incentives due to repeated inquiries about the topic, in this post.

Credit Cards can be very dangerous and the card companies want us to carry balances … so PLEASE BE CARFUL!

Vaccine Update – It’s Looking GoodVaccine

In this post we pointed to an excellent Bloomberg Tracker that is showing multiple Phase III drugs about to hit the testing.

Phase III is the last one before mass production… making for a very fast track of multiple possible cures for Covid.

This is also market friendly as well.

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Not trying to sound like a broken record, but in April we proclaimed that smart market participants may likely look through the valley and over the hill to eventual earnings.

As a reminder, we were really on an island as very few were positive at that time.

They did, and continue to do so … with a bit too much rose colored glasses in our opinion…

We continue to expect bumps as there are tons of unknowns and a negative narrative can take over quickly…

Not letting our guards down!

7-31-20 YTD Large International and Small

Have a Great July Update!

Talk to you at the end of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Top Daily Google Searches for the Last 10 Years In Each State … Showing our VERY Short Attention Spans –

Long time followers know we cannot resist these neat Animated Charts… just fascinating to us ….

The following is daily Google searches for the last 10 years – its a bit long, so pick your time period if you want to watch…. it’s surprisingly interesting.

Couple of observations from our perch:

  • Whew… we have SHORT attention spans!
  • We all school like fish at once – notice how the states show similar searches almost every time
  • Entertainment (music and movies) dominates any other subject
  • The 15 year old watched and knew tons more items than myself
  • Adele and Billie Eilish seem to carry the popularity crown the longest from a muscian standpoint
  • Fortnite was by far the most dominate gaming search
  • Never heard of Myxer – and it is no longer around (maybe that is why we never heard of)
  • Who knew Pepe the Frog was so popular

This again from our friends at Visual Capitalist who usually do not do animated charts, but we sure like this one…

This one is 11 minutes long…well worth the time, but we know most will not watch for more than 2 – Pick a time frame when you think you may know what everyone was searching – You will likely be surprisingly wrong – again, VERY short attention spans for everyting!

Hope you enjoyed as much as we did!

Have a Great “Fellow Short Attention Span” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents