Tag Archives: China

February 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

February – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Job Change or Retirement Checklist

In our updated post here, we discuss a few handy items to grab and remember when you retire or change jobs.

Here are the bullets-

  • Last Pay Check
  • RSU-Options
  • Employee Stock Purchase
  • Deferred Comp
  • Pension
  • Health Coverage
  • Long Term Health Coverage
  • 401k
  • New 401k
  • Severance
  • Social Security Withholding

Institutional Trustee photo-1528752477378-485b46bedcde

This post has turned into a full article in the coming Newsletter due to the great response and continued questions and ideas that were brought up-

Possible reasons for an IRON CLAD Institutional Trustee

  • No other comfortable option – Many times a friend/family member is preferred
  • Want an iron clad back up
  • Calming possible family feuds
  • Long lasting legacy desired
  • Desired attention to details such as monthly distributions, bill payments etc.

Choose Beneficiaries Carefullybeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

In this post, just earlier in the week, born from an in field experience – multiple questions in the office after – and the subject making its way into the Newsletter as well… just a great additional article to the Trust!

The most important item to remember in choosing a designated beneficiary on and account is it will over-rule your Will – choose carefully and review occasionally for safety of desired outcomes.

The Brain Shines at West Coast Event

 

 

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

Nothing to change from the prior month!

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Q2 2017 Newsletter Podcast and Audio Review By John Kvale

Here are a few of the topics discussed in our new Podcast, Audio Video review.

  • David Cameron Speaks at length
  • University of Michigan Sentiment Indicators
  • Updated Price Earnings Multiple
  • Three Travel Tips to save you aggravation and time

Q2 2017 Newsletter Podcast and Video Review

 

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Lunch with Kyle Bass…Forecasts – Oil, China, Interest Rates… We will review in the future!

At one of the favorite events of the year, Three Part Investor Ideas Conference where over 70 publicly traded companies present in rapid fire succession…. and about 300 professionals in the investment community, present party included, listened to Kyle Bass speak for an hour over lunch.

As we give thanks later this week, I will speak to this conference and a special memory from last years event to be thankful

Who is Kyle Bass11-15-16-kyle-bass

Famed hedge fund manager who correctly bet on the real estate bubble of 07-09. Resident and office in Dallas Texas. Talk about timing.. Kyle just happened to open his hedge fund in 2006… good start right out of the gate.

The best thing about Kyle is he is not afraid to speak his mind and tell folks what he thinks… Can you feel the forecasts coming?

We will code this post forecast and look back in a year of so and see how they did!

Here are the biggies:

Oil – Opec reaches a deal and oil rises and stays in the mid 50’s to low 60’s by early to mid 2017. As an add on, Bass was positive about the US and the ability for the US to pump oil domestically along with the positive economic influences that may seep into the domestic economy.

Rates – Kyle is thoroughly convinced rates across the board are WAY too low and will rise, possibly gradually or maybe faster over the next several years. Foreign negative interest rate bonds are in his cross hairs as unsustainably low and silly in his opinion. Domestic interest rates should be much higher according to Bass and will march that way, with numerous short term rate increases on the horizon, again according to Bass. The Taylor Rule, an economic ruler that mixes growth and rates to come to a normal interest rate level was mentioned by Bass; According to the rule rates should be MUCH higher.

China Financial System Problem — The China BANKING SYSTEM has problems, but China does not explode…. just for entertainment purposes we clipped a google search showing a much different picture of Kyle’s thoughts… careful what you read…..

img_0629

 

So Bass, thinks the currency will devaluated by at least 20% over the next several years and  strongly thinks at least 10% over the coming year… ahhh a super easy to follow forecast…

Again, a far cry from the end of the world headlines you see from our google search…

Thanks Kyle…we will check back at a later time to see how these forecast went!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

International visitors – Girl Who Cried Wolf?

What an international week we are having.

  • The Pope is in New York, after a visit with the President in Washington — just as he left, another honorable guest has arrived.
  • The Chinese President, Xi Jimping, is in Washington now with President Obama. (By all counts these guys seem to be really having fun- good!)International Day

Certainly would not want to be a secret service man this week — well done guys!

It is really neat to live in such a small world today !

Girl Who Cried Wolf

We all remember the boy who cried Wolf? With a 7 and 10 year old it enters conversation occasionally — How about the GIRL who cried wolf?

Yesterday afternoon, Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in a public speech, backtracked her words of just a few days ago, leading many to believe she is now planning on RAISING RATES – What ?  Interesting !

Today is a Friday and I am traveling back from a wonderful turn around visit in a neighboring state.  Enjoy your weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave# 590
Dallas, TX 75225


 

China Currency Devaluation in Perspective

The USA and World Capital Markets have moved lower of late after China announced that they would allow their currency to float lower against the US dollar as well as world currencies.

China is huge, and if they catch a cold (or worse), the world could too, but we wanted to shed some light on the subject in a more unbiased manner.

The Fears:

  • China is slowing and having to reach for larger levers to jump-start their economy – Ok… fine by us
  • China is exporting their deflation by lowering the cost of goods they sell to other countries, not to mention increasing their competitiveness – Ok, if other countries could, they would too
  • Selling into China will be more expensive — As an export country, this is not hugely relevant

Our thoughts:

  • Markets are frothy, earnings are only so so, this is an excuse to bring valuations back in line with where they maybe should be.
  • Is this a really big devaluation?

Oh…take a look at this chart from Liz Saunders at Schwab …   Big Devaluation?

China V Euro

 

NAH!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225


June 2015 Financial Planning Tip, Capital Market Review (Video)

Welcome to our monthly Economic, Capital Market, and Financial Planning tip of the month.

This months Financial Planning Tip of the month is a reminder of another important account Title issue !

Once again a special thanks to all of  YOU … the best clients and friends as your experiences have again given us the subject matter for our Financial Planning Tip of the Month.

For those new to our writings, we touch on the most pertinent Financial “stuff” along with a video of my mug that has even more specialized details of the latest month as well as this post.

Ok…let’s go!

VIDEO

You Tube Direct Link  or   Vimeo Direct Link

 

TOD/POD Transfer/Payable on death – Another great Financial Planning Tip: 

  • Automatically sends assets to recipient upon death of other
  • Avoids probate
  • Since Avoids probate, may not be controlled by your Will
  • Very Powerful
  • Can lead to inadvertent mistakes in Estate Planning

While similar to our recent tip concerning Joint Tenants with Rights of Survivorship (JTWROS), we find this tip is actually forgotten about rather than accidentally used. Never by us … Give us a call if you have any confusion/questions!

China, Greece, Puerto Rico and Summer

With slowing earnings growth here in the USA and frothy capital markets, it did not take much to put fear into participants. Combine the trifecta (China, Greece, Puerto Rico) of events and summer doldrums and you get a dicey market.

China:

Shanghai Composite

That’s a pretty scary 20%+ negative move by the China market … Until you take a longer view.

Shanghai Composite LT

With eyes of a wider spectrum, looks like to us a much needed breather. No matter, the weight of all at once, Greece, China and Puerto Rico have been too great for markets to maintain a positive attitude, thus far.

Watching close!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFPJK Street Cents Logo

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Stumbling into Mid-Year …. John guest on LIVE Wharton School Business Satellite Radio

dudGreece, Puerto Rico and China synchronized negative events to end most capital markets mid-year around the world in dud like fashion. Almost all gains for the year for US markets were erased. (They were small to begin with!)

Not to worry, this is a journey not a sprint!

Wharton Radio guest AGAIN

Kent Smetters, a Wharton Professor who hosts a Wharton University Sirius Satellite radio show on Tuesdays, was kind enough to ask me as a guest again yesterday.

After several callers, one with a VERY complicated situation, the spirit of entering this industry to help EVERYONE (or as many as possible) was once again achieved.Wharton Your Money

Even after all the speaking events, talks in front of many, and a general fondness for public speaking ….

I was wound tight before the show!

Oh…the producer asked if I would do another soon….Sure !

Have a Great Middle of the Year Wednesday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

JK Street Cents Logo